Quebec War

The Quebec War (French: Guerre québecois) is an ongoing civil war in Canada, the majority of which has been fought in the eastern part of the country, although all major Canadian cities have suffered some degree of political violence since the start of the war. Fought between the Quebec Liberation Front (FLQ) and its allies (mostly composed of far-right or neo-fascist militias) on one side and the Canadian Forces and its allies on the other, the war began following the 2020 Canadian general election which resulted in a leftist coalition (composed mostly of Social-Democratic and Communist parties as well as anarchists) gaining a supermajority in the Parliament of Canada and its subsequent formation of a government; hostilities formally broke out on 19 April 2020, about a month into a country-wide lockdown imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that began in Canada in earnest a month earlier, which the FLQ viewed as a strategic time to formally declare Quebec an independent nation-state (the Quebec Republic), separate from Canada. The declaration of independence occurred at the beginning of April. Following the Canadian federal government's refusal to acknowledge Quebec's independence, at 18:33 EDT on 19 April FLQ forces attacked the Canadian 2nd Armoured Division stationed at CFB Valcartier 8 km north of Quebec City, initiating hostilities. The newly proclaimed Quebec Republic and the Canadian Republic mutually declared war on one another around 22:00 EDT of the same day.

The war began in earnest on several fronts only a day later, 20 April 2020. FLQ forces besieged CFB Valcartier for two weeks, successfully taking the base following its evacuation a day earlier on 2 May, thus securing Quebec City as the political centre of the newly declared state. The FLQ subsequently pushed southwest along both banks of the St. Lawrence River in an attempt to take Montreal, the largest city and financial powerhouse of Quebec, but after three weeks' effort were routed by a massive Canadian Forces counterattack, which secured Montreal as the seat of the loyalist government-in-exile of the Province of Quebec (which had fled Quebec City upon its fall to the FLQ). Most other urban areas of Quebec (almost all concentrated around the St. Lawrence) remain under Canadian Forces control as of June 2020, while all populated areas around and northeast of Quebec City are held by the FLQ; the ratio of Quebecois population under federal government rule to that living under FLQ rule is currently estimated at 80:20. Since the start of the war, over 11,000 Canadian civilians, almost all citizens of Quebec, have been arrested and charged with terrorism and/or treason as a result of their direct or indirect support of the FLQ. Many leaders and prominent members and supporters of FLQ-allied right-wing and fascist parties and especially their associated militia forces across Canada have also been arrested, numbering around 2500; these arrests indirectly contributed to political polarization in anglophone Canada, with the incumbent leftist federal government attempting to isolate the fascist groups which in turn increased dramatically in numbers following state repression.

Beginning in June 2020, the FLQ, in conjunction with allied anglophone forces such as the militias of the Canadian Front of New Order and the Monarchist League of Canada, staged a series of bombings in major urban centres across Canada outside of Quebec, notably including the bombing of the Toronto City Hall on 5 June, resulting in over 200 deaths and 1100+ injuries, and the suicide bombing of Waterfront Station, the largest and busiest commuter hub in Metro Vancouver, resulting in over 350 deaths and 2000+ injuries; at least 15 other urban centres were bombed in the month of June alone, and 11 more in July. The stated goal of these attacks on civilian targets, for which the FLQ publicly claimed responsibility, was as reprisal for the occupation of Montreal and other parts of Quebec by Canadian Forces-FLQ forces reserved regular military operations exclusively to the defence of controlled territories and the conquest of the rest of Quebec; many times, however, battles would informally spill over into the provincial territory of provinces surrounding Quebec, the largest battle of which was the Battle of Ottawa, a successful counterattack effort against FLQ attempts at besieging the federal capital, separated from Quebec only by the St. Lawrence. Following the successful defence of Ottawa, the Canadian Army, supported by the Air Force, successfully routed FLQ positions leading up to Montreal for a second siege attempt; however, the front would stagnate for several weeks between July and September 2020, with public opinion in Montreal swinging rapidly between the sides depending on the perceived fate of the city-for example, in late July 2020, when it looked like an FLQ conquest of Montreal was almost guaranteed, much of the population publicly declared support for the new independent Quebec; two weeks later, in early- to mid-August, after almost all FLQ approaches along the St. Lawrence had been routed or destroyed, public opinion was again in support of Ottawa and thereby Quebec's remaining as a federated province of Canada.

Since the start of September 2020, the front has largely remained stable, with both sides digging in along its length. On 27 September, it was revealed via a series of leaked State Department memos that the United States government had been financially supporting the FLQ and allied groups since the start of the war, causing a rapid deterioration in diplomatic relations with Canada; the deterioration ultimately resulted in Canada's exit from NATO on 1 October 2020 followed by the country's cutting off of diplomatic ties with the United States on 10 October. On 20 October, two teams of approximately 15 US Navy SEALs each landed in Dorval outside Montreal, attempting to assist the FLQ in its third attempt to gain control of the city. While the SEALs accomplished their immediate mission of securing key strategic sites and loyalist politicians, FLQ forces were not sufficiently prepared to launch an assault on the city, and FLQ sympathies within the city were too weak for an insurgency from within; the SEALs were evacuated on 23 October, the stunt resulting in substantial political scandal in the United States which presented a severe threat to the presidency of Donald Trump. Trump ultimately denied any involvement in the plot, stating the SEAL teams had gone rogue; however, no Navy service member was ever charged with any involvement in rogue activity. After the incident, however, US support for the FLQ ceased almost entirely, limited as of December 2020 to rhetorical support and occasional provision of foodstuffs to FLQ forces and civilians living in FLQ-controlled communities along with humanitarian supplies. However, diplomatic relations with the Canadian federal government as of the start of 2021 remain basically nonexistent, with both the US Embassy in Ottawa and the Canadian embassy in Washington closed indefinitely.

As of 1 February 2021, the Quebec War has resulted in approximately 115,000 military casualties for the FLQ, officially 31,340 for the Canadian Forces, and, according to the Canadian federal government, civilian casualties of at least 110,000 dead, over 500,000 wounded, and the internal displacement of over 1.3 million Canadian citizens, mostly residents or former residents of Quebec. The majority of refugees from war zones in Quebec escaped the province, but one in four remained in Montreal who had been displaced from other areas of the province. Since the start of the war, both sides have consistently refused to engage in proactive negotiations, with all efforts at negotiating failing due to each side's view of the situation as a zero-sum game, with no common interest therefore identified between them.