Arab Winter


 * Not to be confused with the 1986–89 Arab Revolution.

The Arab Winter (Arabic: الشتاء العربية ash-shitā’ al-‘arabīyah), also called the Arab Civil War (الحرب الأهلية العربية al-ḥarb al-ahlīyah al-‘arabīyah), was a civil war in the Arab Union between the Ba'athist government of the Arab Union led by President Bashar al-Assad, and several Islamist and other extremist groups including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS/ISIL, al-Qaeda, the Phalangist Movement, and their domestic and foreign supporters. The war began in May 2011 following the widespread civil unrest and uprisings dubbed by the media the "Arab Spring"; the belief behind such rhetoric was that the unrest would bring about Western-style democratisation, the "Arab Winter" name thus fitting the events' deterioration into mass chaos, anarchy and, ultimately, armed conflict. Many anti-government armed groups in the early phases of the war declared themselves "democrats", and duly received moral and frequently financial support from Western governments; as the conflict unfolded, however, Islamist rebel groups came to overshadow and ultimately take over moderate groups, which often simply disappeared as their fighters defected en masse to extremist Islamist brigades. Since 2016, all actual fighting has involved battles with the Arab Army and its allies on one side, and Islamist groups and their allies on the other.

As of the start of 2018, fighting continued in many regions, especially within the Syrian Arab Republic and the Yemeni Arab Republic, with as many as 295,000 servicemen and women of the Arab Union Armed Forces still deployed across the country. Over 95% of territory, however, was by that time under government control, accounting for 99% of the population for the vast majority of whom life carried on normally, with little problems or inconveniences caused by the war other than occasional but mostly benign shortages of fuel and consumer goods and less occasional damage and casualties (deaths and injuries) caused by rebel-launched mortars, missiles or other ballistic weapons.

By the start of the summer of 2019, the Arab Army began laying siege to the last known rebel strongholds, located in the desert between Syria and Iraq, closest to the Syrian city of Deir Ezzour. From June to August, several successive battles occurred as a result of the siege maneuvers, many quite intense and ultimately resulting in at least 11,000 Arab Army and allied casualties. On 19 August, the last rebel forces surrendered in the town of Al-Ubaidi. Following the end of this battle (the Battle of Ubaidi), for over a month no further clashes occurred with the Arab Army and allied forces across the union; therefore, on 15 September 2019, President Bashar al-Assad officially declared the war over, its end date recognised officially as 19 August 2019, the date of the end of the final stage of the Battle of Ubaidi.

Since the war's end, about 11,250 individuals have been tried in military courts and over 33,000 in civilian courts for their accused role of assisting and abetting rebel forces and allied elements during the civil war. Individuals tried in military courts are generally suspected of having been rebel fighters (most likely Islamist or ANF brigades), while civilian courts are reserved for those suspected strategically, materially or financially supporting rebels and/or pro-rebel groups. As of 1 July 2020, 5,334 individuals have been found guilty by military courts (616 of whom face the death penalty for either murder or treason), while only 2243 of the over 33,000 people charged by civilian courts have so far been found guilty (the most serious of which are the 21 individuals found guilty of treason, which for civilians carries a life sentence), with an additional 1132 found not guilty and 1089 acquitted.